Monday Morning Brushback: A Seat at the Table (2024)

After all of that...here they are.

Months of .500 ball, starting and stopping, and what felt like about 50,000 injuries has resulted in the Boston Red Sox being in a playoff slot as of the time I’m writing this. Sure: it’s the third wild card spot and they’re only clear of a postseason spot by a half game and it’s not even July yet. But they’re still in that mix. Baseball doesn’t make any sense, does it?

The club does deserve some credit for what they’ve been able to drum up as of late. After almost losing a four-game series to the Chicago White Sox, Boston’s gone 9-3 following four straight series victories—including a sweep of the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays. They’re running wild, the pitching is holding up, and multiple guys are pitching in with the bats.

Call me crazy, but I’m starting to buy in on this team—not all the way in, but a bit! I feel like this roster deserves that much at least. We’re heading into the time of the year where they’re the major sports show in town, and they'd have a date with the Seattle Mariners in the postseason if the season ended today. The least I can do is start to take this run seriously.

And hey: given the week ahead, can you blame me? I mentioned in last week’s article that the Sox face a couple of sets against clubs that aren’t exactly setting the world on fire. Toronto comes into town after just getting swept north of the border, while San Diego will be making the trip east while playing mediocre ball. They themselves currently hold the final wild card spot in the Senior Circuit, but I think that’s more of a testament to the impression I have that no one in the NL outside of the Phillies, Daaaahdjurz, Brewers, and Braves feel particularly inclined to be great.

Point is: these games are still great opportunities for the Sox to boost their resume. With the way they’re playing, they might do just that.

It’s Monday Morning Brushback time, y’all.

Taking It To The Max

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Following Boston’s victory this past Saturday in Cincinnati, manager Alex Cora spoke to the NESN crew about every player in the dugout playing their part this season.

“We maximized the roster. We deployed the righties...It’s a much different club than Opening Day. We can mix and match with everybody. We will continue to do that.”

He ain’t lyin’. A total of 10 guys on the team have at least 1.0 fWAR, and that list of players features names you may not have expected to be there on Opening Day. Connor Wong’s having a hell of a season, as his homer on Sunday helped push the Sox in front before they clinched another series dub. Ceddanne Rafaela continues to make his contact count. Rob Refsnyder has been a revelation for a team that was desperate for production from the depth pieces. The entire pitching staff continues to piece together strong performances together.

Saturday’s win was a microcosm of that idea of the Red Sox being greater than the sum of their parts. It was a game where 19 players were utilized; just about everyone was needed to keep this hot streak going.

How long can the we-not-me Red Sox keep this level of play up? That remains to be seen. You’re asking a lot of Wong to continue to produce at a 142 OPS+ clip. Ceddy and Refsnyder might need some more assistance in the outfield going forward (WIlyer Abreu’s back in action, though!). There’s always a need for some pitching reinforcements over the course of a 162-game season.

Those answers will all come in time, though. For now, credit to Cora to maximizing the roster to this point. They’ve earned themselves a seat at the table this season. With that, don’t be surprised if they’re pegged as buyers leading up to next month’s trade deadline.

Speaking of which...

Rumors (1977)

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Those trade rumblings have already started. It’s nice to be back in a playoff spot and be the subject of some trade chatter that doesn’t involve punting the season, huh?

For what it’s worth: MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand provided a list of 13 players who could be trade candidates among the league’s cellar-dwellers over the weekend, as he also added their best potential fits. The Red Sox were one of the teams mentioned as possible buyers for left-handed starting pitcher Tyler Anderson, who’s currently a Los Angeles Angel of Anaheim of Orange County of California of the United States North America of Earth of the Solar System of the Milky Way Galaxy.

On the surface, a move that sends Anderson to Boston could make sense. Garrett Whitlock is on the shelf and, as mentioned a few paragraphs ago, any team worth their salt is open to additional arms to help over the course of a long campaign. Anderson’s boasting a strong 2.48 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over nearly 100 innings for a team that’s going nowhere fast. Seems elementary, no?

Well...look under the hood a bit.

While the ERA and WHIP figures are undoubtedly good, Anderson’s 4.55 FIP this season suggests that some negative regression could be on the horizon. Some dudes are able to consistently out-pitch their predictive numbers. Anderson, historically speaking, ain’t one of them; his 4.32 career FIP over the course of about 1,000 frames is very close to his 4.18 lifetime ERA. He’s been logging those great surface level numbers in spite of the fact that he’s not striking enough guys out (12th percentile in K%, per Savant), he’s walking too many batters (19th percentile in BB%), and he’s not inducing enough sh*tty contact (23rd percentile in barrel rate, 22nd percentile in ground ball rate, and the biggest tell tale sign: 28th percentile in expected ERA).

Now tell me: does that profile for a left-handed pitcher sound intriguing to you at Fenway Park, a haven for right-handed hitters?

Look, this isn’t to say that Anderson couldn’t be useful for a team with playoff hopes—Boston included. He can work well into games as a steady-enough of a veteran; that’s valuable in its own right. However, I wouldn't want the Red Sox to buy in on what he’s done thus far in 2024 given that the other shoe could very easily drop. Yet given what the Angels might ask in return for his services, and given the fact that he’d still be on the books for $13 million next season (as Feinsand pointed out), I just wouldn’t want to see a haul sent over to the West Coast for a mediocre arm for the rotation.

If the price is right, sure: I could f*ck with Feinsand’s idea and Anderson could be fine in Boston. But that's a significant “if.”

Democracy Doesn’t Work

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I wanted to wrap up this week’s article with a simple question: what more does Jarren Duran have to do, man?

Earlier in the week, the first update of All-Star Game voting was released. The outfielder’s name was nowhere to be seen, as his strong first half has yet to be recognized with enough love from the fan voting system.

Don’t worry: Mike Trout—the guy who hasn’t played in nearly two months—certainly got his flowers, though! He was comfortably slotted into the top 10 of American League outfielders!

Jarren Duran’s .283/.348/.478 line? Not good enough. Alex Verdugo’s .251/.309/.409 line? Good enough to just miss out on one of the top five.

Obviously fan voting will never get these things—which are ultimately frivolous and a way to distract us from the fact that the sun’s gonna explode one day—100% right. They’re designed to be popularity contests and nothing more. One important factor to consider, though, is that none of that will stop me from complaining about it.

Jarren Duran deserves and All-Star nod this year. He is the straw that stirs the drink for a team that’s currently in a playoff spot. Where would the Red Sox be this year without him? After all the pits and peaks of his major league career up to this point, he should at least be recognized for what he’s been able to put together in 2024.

I really didn’t have any deeper point than that—I just wanted to point out a grave injustice in our game.

Song of the Week: “Homecoming” by Green Day

With the Dads coming into town this upcoming weekend, I imagine that Xander Bogaerts (in spite of his injury) will be making the trip back to Fenway Park for the first time since he signed with San Diego as a free agent. In turn, this feels fitting. I’ll be at the game on Friday to welcome number 2 back and to thank him for his time here.

Same time and same place next week, folks! Go Sox.